Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 12:09PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 12:09PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 9% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 92% | 91% | +1% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 09:55PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 09:55PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 10:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 10:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 5% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 93% | 95% | -2% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 20, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025 | Feb 20, 2025 | 12% | +4% | -2% |
| No | 84% | Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025 | Feb 20, 2025 | 88% | -4% | +2% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 10:40PM UTC
(15 hours ago)
Nov 21, 2024 10:40PM UTC
(15 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025 | Dec 21, 2024 | 12% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 87% | Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025 | Dec 21, 2024 | 88% | -1% | +0% |