I don’t think Turkey will budge in it’s objections that quickly.
0.027583
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe they will be convinced to do it last minute.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
I don’t think that there will be significant quantum systems to enable an attack or be the victim of an attack.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
I think things have calmed down and attacks on civilians won’t be as deadly as during the height of the civil war.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
I think the groups are going to step up their game with the drawn down French presence and political turmoil in the region but I don’t know that the spread will go as those areas of Nigeria.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
I think those countries that are interested have already made progress and are not on the list. I don’t think it will be popular for leaders of most Muslim-majority countries to get cozier with Israel.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Djibouti.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
I think that the probability is low because (1) Susan has to figure out its government and (2) Israel is less popular in the Muslim world these days than they have been. But it’s a long timeline so there is a chance.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Anything could happen in 8 months.
Files
I don’t think the fighting will clear up soon and then they will need to work out a civilian government (hopefully).