RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 3, 2023 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023)	0.000671
Dec 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022)	0.000133
Sep 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022)	0.000026
Aug 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022)	0.000658
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?	-0.046911
Jul 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022)	0.00056
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM	On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?	-0.012382
Jun 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022)	0.000281
May 31, 2022 03:08PM	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	0.043192
May 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	0.007993
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM	When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?	0.087265
Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	0.005368