Confirmed previous forecast
-0.011012
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
The forecast for 2030 is that dysprosium oxide will cost between $440 and $530 per kg
https://www.statista.com/statistics/450164/global-reo-dysprosium-oxide-price-forecast/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
I think it will be released around september or october. OpenAI is then able to conduct research, the EU can work on its AI Act. Competitive market pressures will force it to be released in 2023, most likely
Files
There are 6 planned missions, from which 4 carry landers. 3 from the US, 1 from China. The US has an historical success rate for landing landers of 65% and China has a success rate of 100%. At least 1 US lander should land safely OR 1 China lander should land safely. The Bernoulli likelyhood of failing to land any lander safely is for the US 5% and for china 0%. However, China has only sent 7 missions to the moon, and the US 57, so lets average the 5% and 0% failing chance of both countries. That results in a 2.5% failing rate or a 97.5% succes rate. Rounded to 2% failing and 98% succes