RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	0.280899
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.01608
Mar 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022)	0.011055
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.012522
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	-0.074244
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?	0.587562
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?	0.373827
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM	In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)	0.014597
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM	Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?	-0.052516
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	-0.138561
May 15, 2022 01:00PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jun 2022	0.450122
May 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	0.022547
Apr 15, 2022 01:10PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - May 2022	0.248102
Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	0.018271