Confirmed previous forecast
1.437031
Relative Brier Score
87
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 200
49%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
37%
(0%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 12, 2023 03:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 12, 2022 to Jan 12, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 5
4%
(0%)
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
69%
(0%)
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
27%
(0%)
More than or equal to 18
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 5
86%
(0%)
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to 8
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
48%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files