elainesampaio

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New Prediction
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If all the preparations are ready, North Korea should not put off conducting nuclear tests for long. Moreover, the country knows that its nuclear power is a threat to regional security, a way to pressure its rivals and show strength. So it could achieve some goal by conducting a nuclear test.

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Why might you be wrong?

North Korea may not conduct a nuclear test because (i) it is afraid of the consequences; (ii) internal problems; (iii) it has bluffed about the need to test a new bomb.

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New Prediction
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China will not end its zero Covid policy because the number of cases of covid-19 is increasing. On November 23, 2022, it recorded more than 55,000 new cases [1], the highest number ever recorded since the pandemic began. Therefore, China will continue to apply its policy to prevent further contamination. Finally, China has not demonstrated through any public act that it intends to end its policy. On the contrary, the country continues to apply its rules and repress the demonstrations against it.

[1] https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=pt-BR&mid=%2Fm%2F0fbp0&gl=BR&ceid=BR%3Apt-419

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Why might you be wrong?

If the number of cases drops to a very low number, China may change its policy against covid-19. 

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