Confirming forecasts
0.010605
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 14 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(+19%)
Yes
80%
(-19%)
No
Recent support by regional actors increases the likelihood
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 23, 2024 04:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 23, 2024 to Oct 23, 2024
25%
(0%)
No
Apr 23, 2024 to Oct 23, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 20, 2024 04:39PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 20, 2024 to Aug 20, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Feb 20, 2024 to Aug 20, 2024
Confirm previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirm forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
It's seems highly unlikely.
Files