Consensus down
-0.144136
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Definitions |
Active Forecaster
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
They set targets for 2050, which makes me think thath they are not hugely serious about doing anything immediately?Only $5 million was invested, which makes me think it is not a hugely
The definition is pretty loose: only needs to have done sort of testserious aim yet?flight. This makes me morte confident, but still not that much lmao
Flight seems like an expeOle says oops: maybe actually much easier to test? So more possible? 15%? OVERALL FOR OLE: 5%. SeemsUnsure
how often planes are tested with different fuels for these purposes, but it seemd pretty costly and the Semm small company, not a huge investment compared to the value generated (I’d guess)
Active Forecaster
They set targets for 2050, which makes me think thath they are not hugely serious about doing anything immediately?Only $5 million was invested, which makes me think it is not a hugely
The definition is pretty loose: only needs to have done sort of testserious aim yet?flight. This makes me morte confident, but still not that much lmao
Flight seems like an expeOle says oops: maybe actually much easier to test? So more possible? 15%? OVERALL FOR OLE: 5%. SeemsUnsure
how often planes are tested with different fuels for these purposes, but it seemd pretty costly and the Semm small company, not a huge investment compared to the value generated (I’d guess)
Community