Consensus down
-0.144136
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-4%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
They set targets for 2050, which makes me think thath they are not hugely serious about doing anything immediately?Only $5 million was invested, which makes me think it is not a hugely
The definition is pretty loose: only needs to have done sort of testserious aim yet?flight. This makes me morte confident, but still not that much lmao
Flight seems like an expeOle says oops: maybe actually much easier to test? So more possible? 15%? OVERALL FOR OLE: 5%. SeemsUnsure
how often planes are tested with different fuels for these purposes, but it seemd pretty costly and the Semm small company, not a huge investment compared to the value generated (I’d guess)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
They set targets for 2050, which makes me think thath they are not hugely serious about doing anything immediately?Only $5 million was invested, which makes me think it is not a hugely
The definition is pretty loose: only needs to have done sort of testserious aim yet?flight. This makes me morte confident, but still not that much lmao
Flight seems like an expeOle says oops: maybe actually much easier to test? So more possible? 15%? OVERALL FOR OLE: 5%. SeemsUnsure
how often planes are tested with different fuels for these purposes, but it seemd pretty costly and the Semm small company, not a huge investment compared to the value generated (I’d guess)
Files
Community