RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
May 23, 2023 03:04PM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.00026
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.000588
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM	Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?	-0.064333
Aug 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?	0.000239
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM	Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?	-0.000558
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM	Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022?	-0.019983
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	-0.00227
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	-0.003613
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?	-0.058239
Jul 6, 2022 03:59AM	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	0.024022
Jul 1, 2022 01:33PM	By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO?	0.0
Jul 1, 2022 01:25PM	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	-0.000005
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM	On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?	-0.001608
Jun 2, 2022 01:40PM	What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?	-0.042914
May 31, 2022 03:08PM	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	0.06149
May 6, 2022 09:00PM	What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022?	-0.011418