mateoren

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.001301
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.088268
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? -0.000722
    Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? 0.031023
    Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023? -0.0001
    Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.187424
    Apr 1, 2023 04:01AM Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? 0.000773
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.001147
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? -0.000004
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? -0.049793
    Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023? 0.048039
    Mar 21, 2023 04:00PM How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022? 0.334608
    Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023? 0.113842
    Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? 0.17369
    Feb 3, 2023 05:00AM Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023? 0.014026
    Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? 0.000179
    Jan 2, 2023 05:01AM Will the price per chip-hour of Google’s cloud-based Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v4) be greater than $3.22 on January 1, 2023? -0.003896
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe? -0.09429
    Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? 0.007817
    Jan 1, 2023 04:59AM In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023) 0.001514
     
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