RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	-0.0015
Aug 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?	-0.000265
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM	Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?	-0.112038
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM	Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022?	-0.019331
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	-0.004407
Jul 29, 2022 01:55PM	How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022?	-0.009759
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	-0.012259
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?	0.081213
Jul 6, 2022 03:59AM	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	-0.000625
Jul 1, 2022 01:33PM	By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO?	0.00732
Jul 1, 2022 01:25PM	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	-0.001029
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM	On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?	-0.001085