RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	0.039194
Apr 1, 2023 04:01AM	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.005768
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.010663
Jul 6, 2022 03:59AM	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	-0.113977
Jun 4, 2022 04:00AM	What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022?	-0.017169
Jun 2, 2022 01:40PM	What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?	0.005534
May 31, 2022 03:08PM	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	0.082482
May 6, 2022 09:00PM	What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022?	0.017502