RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	0.00756
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?	0.028339
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict?	0.009792
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?	0.00359
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.000843
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM	Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022?	0.050052
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022?	-0.00988
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.006717
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM	What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?	0.005811
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	0.042394
Jan 2, 2023 05:01AM	Will the price per chip-hour of Google’s cloud-based Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v4) be greater than $3.22 on January 1, 2023?	0.086527
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.000806
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.001222
Sep 17, 2022 07:16PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Oct 2022	-0.030576
Aug 15, 2022 01:00PM	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Sep 2022	-0.003236