sulli365

About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 15
Comments 0 0 0 0 6
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 6
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 2
 Definitions
New Prediction
sulli365
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than 40
30%
More than or equal to 40 but less than 60
41%
More than or equal to 60 but less than 80
25%
More than or equal to 80 but less than 100
2%
More than or equal to 100
Why do you think you're right?

The pandemic made it much harder to coordinate lab-based efforts like iGEM, the decrease in the number of teams during 2020-2021-2022 is unsurprising.

I expect somewhat of a reversion to the pre-pandemic mean with the possibility of upside towards earlier (~2014) numbers of teams.

However, I think that is less likely than a number in the 40-80 range. iGEM teams are time-consuming to set up and coordinate, I don't think we are likely to an explosion of new entrants.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Universities decide iGEM isn't worth the time and the team counts stay low

Files
New Badge
sulli365
earned a new badge:

SynBio Trendcaster

Forecasted on at least 5 synthetic biology questions between August 18 and October 31
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username