Forecasted Questions
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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 10:25PM
(16 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 10:25PM
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025 | Mar 28, 2025 10:25PM | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 100% | Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025 | Mar 28, 2025 10:25PM | 99% | +1% | +1% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 10:27PM
(16 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 10:27PM
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025 | Mar 28, 2025 10:27PM | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 99% | Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025 | Mar 28, 2025 10:27PM | 98% | +1% | -1% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 10:27PM
(16 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 10:27PM
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 39% | +51% | +2% |
| No | 10% | 61% | -51% | -2% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2025 10:41PM
(16 days ago)
Feb 28, 2025 10:41PM
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025 | Mar 28, 2025 10:41PM | 7% | +63% | +1% |
| No | 30% | Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025 | Mar 28, 2025 10:41PM | 93% | -63% | -1% |