Confirmed previous forecast
0.470525
Relative Brier Score
21
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
94%
(0%)
Intel
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
94%
Intel
High chance as other companies have already done so.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Given the current trend, seems less likely for it to be completely publicly available.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Can't happen in short timespan.
Files