Confirmed previous forecast
0.849036
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2023 03:48PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
66%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2023 to Feb 28, 2023
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 26, 2022 12:28PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 26, 2022 to Nov 26, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
Russia may use tactical nuclear bombs. The country show no sing of winning the conflict and the war is lasting more than was expected.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The effort of other countries
Files
If "Russia may use tactical nuclear bombs", as you say, then why you forecast such an event as impossible (0%)?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 26, 2022 12:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
66%
(+66%)
Yes
Oct 26, 2022 to Nov 26, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
Russia may use tactical nuclear weapons. The war show no sing of ending and is lasting longer than expected.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Other countries might help mediate a peace treaty or cease fire in time to prevent nuclear escalation.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The US invests much more on its space program than China.
Why might you be wrong?
China may reduce costs and be the upper hand.