LuanVizioli

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The Israel-Hamas conflict appears to be difficult to resolve. On the one hand, Israel has been systematically destroying the physical infrastructure of Gaza, as well as causing several civilian deaths, in addition to countless injuries resulting from its bombings. In this sense, life in Gaza has become unsustainable for the millions of refugees displaced to the south of the territory. In this context, it appears that the international pressure on Israel to pause the conflict for humanitarian reasons is enormous. However, from a military point of view, Israel has suffered several casualties, so it faces fierce resistance from Hamas. In fact, the Israeli army will have severe difficulties in suppressing the group of fighters, which will make it difficult to pause the war. I think, however, that a minimum agreement will have to be reached, without which thousands of Palestinians in Gaza will die of hunger, thirst or disease.

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For forecasting on 10 questions!
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Despite the great pressure that the US government puts on its closest allies, it is unlikely that such countries will join the boycott so early, without having guarantees of counterparts for the demand for semiconductors.

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New Prediction
LuanVizioli
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than $4.60
30%
More than or equal to $4.60 but less than $4.80
15%
More than or equal to $4.80 but less than $5.00
5%
More than or equal to $5.00 but less than $5.20
0%
More than or equal to $5.20

There will be an increase in the price of diesel, due to the sanctions imposed by European countries, but it will not be a significant increase in the short term. Most likely, the price per gallon will remain below $4.60.

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New Prediction

I consider it unlikely that European countries would send fighter jets to Ukraine without US consent.  Despite the appeals of the Ukrainian president and his military leaders, the sending of modern fighters tends to be rejected, since it could represent a giant escalation of the conflict.  It would therefore increase a risk of direct war.

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New Prediction
Although there is a clear tendency to use artificial intelligence to boost its Bing search engine, in view of direct competition with Google, it is unlikely that Microsoft will launch the tool before being effectively tested, with any errors already corrected. It is, in fact, an investment that requires a certain period to mature, without which you run the risk of launching a tool that is not well received by the public. Eventually, Microsoft may seize this opportunity to increase its share of the search engine market.
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New Prediction
LuanVizioli
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
6%
Less than 5%
56%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
38%
More than or equal to 6%
Why do you think you're right?

it is likely that this year the United Kingdom will resume the trajectory of increasing the percentage of biofuels used in transport, in a coordinated effort to achieve the targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the country. I bet the percentage should be in the range of 5 to 6%.

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Why might you be wrong?

It is possible, although I do not consider it likely, that the percentage this year will exceed 6%, if the growth shown between 2017-2020 resumes.

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