Because Putin has not shown any sign of ending the war, quite the oposite.
0.908713
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Because Ukrain is receiving more help from USA and other ocidental contries. That might help to make more pressure over Russia to end the war.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
North Korea constantilly refused to allow international inspectors, leading to speculation the facilities for conducting a test are being restored.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
South Korea and China warned they might react to a nuclear test. Maybe, just maybe, North Korea might come to her sences.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
There is not enough time