Hezbollah will maintain current engagement levels, not escalate to all out war.
-0.015787
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 39 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will war break out between Hezbollah and Israel in the next month?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2024 08:40PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Jan 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2024
95%
No
Jan 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Less than or equal to 24
35%
Between 25 and 34, inclusive
5%
Between 35 and 44, inclusive
0%
Between 45 and 54, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 55
Autonomous vehicles are not quite popular enough yet for these vehicles to cause that many collisions
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-9%)
Yes
It is nearly the end of 2023 and this has yet to happen. Also many of OpenAI’s people are quitting?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 23, 2023 12:56AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
Yes
Oct 23, 2023 to Nov 23, 2023
There is no indication a ceasefire will occur, and neither side seems like they will step down. Fighting is escalating each day.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
88%
(0%)
Yes
12%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
14%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
87%
(0%)
Yes
13%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files