118th
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jiexinching

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? 0.205602
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? 0.293607
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) -0.28059
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? 0.008654
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.052367
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) 0.011
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.055618
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? 0.01723
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.012312
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? -0.000592
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? 0.416503
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? 0.001232
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