RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	-0.000507
Mar 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)	0.001379
Feb 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Feb 2, 2024)	0.000361
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?	-0.183328
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran?	0.035486
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo?	0.471284
Jan 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024)	0.0
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?	0.028073
Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)	-0.000633
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?	0.000091
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.001087
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	0.003523
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.000769