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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Lebanon’s fourth presidential vacuum has come at a very challenging time for the country that is facing one of the worst economic crises the modern world has seen. According to Arab Center Washington, the election of a new Lebanese president is being prevented by political disagreements and institutional difficulties, as well as the country’s intricate regional and global environment, which indicates that this time the vacuum “will be a long one”. The recent article by Anadolu Agency states that Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati had emphasized the need for “political will” to resolve an impasse on the election of a new president. Still, little progress has been made so far, as claimed by Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, who reported that not only the government had not taken any measures to resolve the crisis, but they also did not have the intention to do so due to their unwillingness to “hold the culprits accountable”. As stated by ACW, the absence of regional and international concurrence on how to bridge Lebanon’s political divisions can make the process of the election last indefinitely. Furthermore, as reported by Alarabiya News, Lebanon Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora claims that the country is “heading for an open-ended cabinet formation crisis” due to political hurdles between the key parliamentary blocks. Siniora also warned that the current presidential vacuum may resemble the one that preceded the election of Aoun on Oct. 31, 2016.
Why might you be wrong?
According to United Press International, external powers are changing their previous strategy of non-interference due to Lebanon’s urgent need for assistance to be able to “stand on its feet”. As mentioned by Riad Tabbarah, Lebanon's former ambassador in Washington, the major focus of the support tactics should be put on developing the country’s institutions rather than providing humanitarian assistance as it has been done before. Furthermore, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati claims the worst may be over with regard to the economic crisis, with the country’s economy having grown by nearly 2% in 2022, mostly due to “increased revenues from tourism and a rise in remittances”. In addition, Lebanon MPs, Ms Saliba and Mr Khalaf from the Forces of Change, bloc had spent a night inside the parliament building after 11th vote for president ended in another failure, saying their sit-in would continue until a new president is finally appointed, as reported by BBC.