He has held power for so long, and there is no ongoing crisis in Iran, meaning his regime is likely stable.
0.029741
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 15, 2024 07:41PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Mar 15, 2025
99%
No
Mar 15, 2024 to Mar 15, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Tensions are high and only increasing in the Red Sea so far. These tensions seem unlikely to lower in the forseeable future as both the Houthi rebels and US coalition forces escalate in their attacks.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 11, 2023 06:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Nov 11, 2023 to May 11, 2024
90%
No
Nov 11, 2023 to May 11, 2024
While normalization is not off the table; it is unlikely to occur so long as Israel is conducting military operations in the Gaza strip. Thus, normalization will likely have to wait until after the Gaza conflict which could take over a year.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
China has historically not been highly interested in establishing military bases abroad outside of the special circumstance of Djibouti. Additionally, the US would work fervently to prevent any African country from agreeing to host a PLA military base, increasing the political difficulties for Chinese success in setting up new military bases.
Why might you be wrong?
China has historically had security ties in the Sub-Saharan Africa, and if the UN does not feel sufficient to China, it may be incentivized to establish military bases to protect its interests in the region.