RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC	For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?	0.006172
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?	0.651177
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.235189
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?	0.11171
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?	-0.022182
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	0.266978
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?	-0.481752
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.031379
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	1.167855
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	0.432298
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	0.114785
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM UTC	Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023?	1.86908
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?	0.146557
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.182232
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.004128
Feb 03, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?	-0.00043
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	-0.000026
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	-0.000413
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.18608

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