Updating downwards (in part due to time passing)
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Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 16, 2022 02:24AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Oct 16, 2022 to Nov 16, 2022
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 9, 2022 02:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Oct 9, 2022 to Nov 9, 2022
Raised relative risk, but crowd forecast is too high. Risk may rise slightly through nov-jan as Putin continues to suffers more defeats.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
Files
updating