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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
35%
Less than 5%
35%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
30%
More than or equal to 6%
Why do you think you're right?
I do not see any technological or need based activity that would indicate any increase in the overall production or demand of biofuel. The concept of increased biofuels lends itself to either a more cost effective manufacturing option or a sudden demand in the fuel such as an oil crisis. Neither of these options appear destined for a 2023 showing.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Two items could change the calculus:
1) A great powers contest between China and the United States turning into war. This would, in turn, draw the United Kingdom into a great role for European defense, increasing the overall fuel requirements. That would then draw from the civilian supply, creating a sudden change in demand for fuel.
2) The recent shifting of Saudi Arabia and Gulf States toward Iranian and Chinese interests could spark a steep reduction in Western oil supply lines. That sudden shift could be a catalyst for the change in demand, creating that biofuel need.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
The hard right lean of the current administration combined with the historical Sudanese backing of international terror as well as anti-Israeli groups. I do not believe that the people will allow the Sudanese government to sign an agreement with Israel. Even if terms are announce, I fear that internal political unrest would derail the agreement from the Sudan side of things.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A shift of political will and understanding within the Sudanese population. Also, it would be that a new Sudanese administration was able to remove those within the government who have historically been anti-Israeli by historic precedent.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There has been a line crossed that is now a chasm. With third party interests, such as Iran, their is no interest in bringing the conflict to a close. The longer Iran extends the suffering in Palestine, then they win twice. One for making the news cycle begin to turn on Israel. Two, create an unstable Middle East so that they can become more of a regional power beyond Iraq.
Why might you be wrong?
If the Sunni Arab states decide that a Shiite state expansion in the region is not in their best interest. The Gulf States primarily have an interest in keeping Iran bound within their borders. Right now, Iran is conducting proxy wars in Yemen and now Gaza. This is a direct a front to Saudi, Jordan, Kuwait, etc. This will not be tolerated for long. With recent accords, there could become a situation of 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend'.