It's an unstable environment
1.701839
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 22, 2024 11:46PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
70%
No
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
it’s highly unlikely a group will take credit for it.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 9, 2024 06:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(+3%)
Yes
Feb 9, 2024 to Aug 9, 2024
The tensions are already so high in the area that though I don't think it's impossible, it's highly improbable that there will be an attack in the near future.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 12, 2024 09:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Jan 12, 2024 to Jul 12, 2024
85%
No
Jan 12, 2024 to Jul 12, 2024
With the continued increase in tension and conflict within the Israel region and in the Middle East in general, a near missile attack remains somewhate possible, though unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 1, 2024 10:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024
92%
No
Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024
It is unlikely because of how big the tension is among the different militant groups in the region.
Files
Iran is already involved with so many countries that I don't foresee another conflict with a completely separate state.