Confirmed previous forecast
-0.057387
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 32 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2024 08:28PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
May 29, 2024 to Nov 29, 2024
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Still 1 new planet. That's still in line with my prediction, even though I would expect 2 by now. If there is still none added until end of June, I might need to lower my prediction a bit.
A potential planet has been discovered, but since it takes months to evaluate whether it's habitable, I'm unsure if it will make it in time. Maybe it would be reasonable to look at a list of already discovered planets under review?
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Why might you be wrong?
Maybe I don't understand the process of discovered and classifying correctly, and thus update in the wrong direction.
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New Prediction
So far it is still 70, so 1 planet.
There was some mail from some expert to a fellow forecaster, but it doesn't seem to me that person has thought about the question deeply. I will not update on it, since I was already above the crowd forecast and trust my analysis.
I expect the next planet to be added around 21.3. + 49 days = 9th of May (+- 145 days ≈ 5 months).
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Hey, thanks for you comment!
To your first point, I indeed meant the the mail sender. I'm sorry if my formulation could have been taken offensive, no such intended :) I'm sure Abel Méndez is well-versed in his topic and might possibly even have seriously engaged in forecasting before!
To your second point, I just restated a result from earlier calculations. Please see my previous forecast for more details on how I reached it.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
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Less than or equal to 499
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Between 500 and 999, inclusive
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Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
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More than or equal to 2000
Currently at 399, which is quite close to my predictions.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Time progression
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 27, 2024 07:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Iran is attacking Israel + Trump likely being elected in the fall. What can go wrong with that?
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Why might you be wrong?
I have little idea about international agreements, especially regarding Iranian nuclear enrichment.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
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Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 499
0%
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Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
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Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
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Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
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More than or equal to 2000
Up to 19th of April the number is now at 370, which is a bit higher than the point estimate I predicted, but it's still well within the range. While the change does adjust the upper limit of the end-of-may estimate, I'm confident it won't even come close to 500 (probably something like 405 +- 35).
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