RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?	-0.003262
Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?	-0.000282
May 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	1.383666
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM	Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?	-0.000011
Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	-0.000002
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	-0.000693
Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM	What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023?	-0.000107
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.001129
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?	0.0
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM	Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?	-0.420393
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.013729
Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	-0.000029
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.034838