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begoga77

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2023 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.087561
May 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.091346
May 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?	1.088195
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	0.449386
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?	-0.090273
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?	0.717854
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?	-0.186646
Sep 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.924377
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	-0.008839
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.178508
Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	-0.000168
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023)	0.0
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.002828
Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	-0.00136
Jan 3, 2023 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023)	0.0