There is little reason Putin will be deposed or not be alive in the next 4-5 months. He is reportedly sick, but no certainly what his condition is.
0.002483
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Seems very unlikely because Putin has publicly stated he will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. But there is a very small chance they could test one in the next month, but only a very low probability for that because the rhetoric about nuclear weapons from the U.S. and some EU countries has been a bit much lately.
Why might you be wrong?
I think Russia would only test a nuke to send a strong message to NATO that a war might begin because some red line is being or has been crossed