I think algae-based biofuels are good.
3.076114
Relative Brier Score
27
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
100%
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
0%
Not before 1Q 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
ExxonMobil might not agree.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
what people are saying
Files
Why might you be wrong?
people have been wrong before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
That's the average guess.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
That's the average guess.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
That's the trend.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's not up to me.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
It's the trend.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I hope for fewer.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
That's what everybody's saying.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I hope for no fatalities.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
That's what everybody's saying.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They could be wrong.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
China
20%
EU
20%
United States
20%
India
20%
None of the above
Why do you think you're right?
Could be any
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Anything is possible
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 40%
0%
More than or equal to 40% but less than 50%
10%
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60%
90%
More than or equal to 60%
Why do you think you're right?
America is exceedingly innovative.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Innovation can make us lazy.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There are many other options.
Why might you be wrong?
They might decide this option is the best.