No democracy in Russia, so the only question is whether the war with Ukraine is sufficient to trigger a change (whether locally or from international pressure).
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20%
Yes
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Why do you think you're right?
Tight time-frame of fewer than 6 months. it's unlikely that any action will be taken before that, and even if action were to be taken, to take control would take some time in the definition provided. As we have seen from Ukraine's resistance, taking position will take some time.
Why might you be wrong?
If China becomes confident or if Russia's invasion proves a success which bolsters China's confidence.