Confirmed previous forecast
0.171825
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Less than 20
50%
(0%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
20%
(0%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 50
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Japan
0%
The Netherlands
20%
South Korea
5%
Any other country not listed
Why do you think you're right?
Geopolitical situation makes caution necessary when exercising sanctions which could potentially exacerbate conditions, especially when the financial situations are less than ideal.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Escalation of tensions will result in increased bans/positioning. This is highly dependent on the individual actions of countries.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Can go either way, but there may be a higher geopolitical incentive for China.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unclear of exact stats of each side's launch patterns, subject to random variation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-20%)
Less than 20
50%
(+19%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
20%
(+1%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 50
Updating to account for trends in number of AVs and historical information
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-35%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Time factor of geopolitical situation.
Compensate for previous high estimate by going lower.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Misreading of the situation
Innately unpredictable actions given very limited information
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 20
31%
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
19%
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
0%
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 50
Why do you think you're right?
- Self Driving Cars have been massively improving over the last few years, and are likely to have much more stringent controls on driving risk due to the bad press that would come out of any collisions.
- Looking at historical data from a few years ago and extrapolating the rate of technological increase, even with the higher number of autonomous cars, it is likely that the number should be smaller.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- There may be too many cars on the road, which may affect the statistic
- Freak accidents do happen and maybe California is a big enough place to account for many incidents.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Was a decent chance
Why might you be wrong?
Consensus is far below