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No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 23, 2023 03:00PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 23, 2022 to Jan 23, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
With such an unpredictable state, I'm shooting in the dark. Regardless, they haven't tested since 2017, so I'm erring on the side of it not happening in the next few months, though 40% is still possible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
With internal strife occurring over China's zero-COVID policies, China cannot afford an international incident. I cannot think of a worse time for an international incident to occur.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could happen to divert attention from internal strife to an external enemy, but it would be a naked display and not many people would go for it.
Files