Confirmed previous forecast
0.031819
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
My very low probability number would be zero except that a mistake could happen. However the Russians know that something serious enough to cause that many fatalities in a NATO country would likely trigger an Article 5 response from NATO and be disastrous for Russia.
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Why might you be wrong?
Putin ends up being more irrational than previously assumed by foreign policy experts, and does something rash in a fit of anger or desperation, because he’s being driven out of Ukraine
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
He’s got control of the information apparatus in Russia. He would have to be ousted from within Russia. Not likely to happen before 3/23
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