Oligarchs believing the strategic calculus means Russia is better off with Putin in power.
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Probability
Answer
20%
(-50%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Alleged ill health could cause him to die soon.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
Trend and current DARPA research focuses.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
Unlikely oligarchs will depose Putin by that time - see capital control restrictions. I believe Putin will be kept in power until most of the major oligarchs have siphoned their wealth abroad, primarily through the Middle East.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Don't see an impetus for Russia returning to the normal economic fold given apparent evidence of war crimes.
Why might you be wrong?
Putin could be deposed, sanctions could be dropped to prevent further instability.