Making my first forecast!
0.010864
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
Files
Taking Samotsvety's base rate of 5% made in early October, sliding downward given reduced tensions.