RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Definitions

New Prediction

In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?

Edward35 made their 1st forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

40%

Yes

Limited news but still feasible

Files

Mar 30, 2023 02:09AM

New Prediction

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?

Edward35 made their 1st forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

0%

Yes

Timeline

Files

Mar 30, 2023 02:08AM

New Prediction

Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?

Edward35 made their 1st forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

0%

Japan

0%

South Korea

5%

Any other country not listed

Deadline approaches

Files

Mar 30, 2023 02:07AM

New Prediction

Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?

Edward35 made their 1st forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

0%

Yes

Implausible at this point

Files

Mar 30, 2023 02:05AM

New Badge

Edward35 earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?

Edward35 made their 2nd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

70% (0%)

Intel

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Mar 30, 2023 02:04AM