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Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-29%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
(+14%)
Less than 20
31%
(+20%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
32%
(+7%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
14%
(-29%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
9%
(-12%)
More than or equal to 50
Why do you think you're right?
Sharp downward trend in 2022 to expect ~6 per month.
The autocorrelation of the past trend makes it unlikely that this trend will change much over next three months, although the slope can change somewhat abruptly.
I’d be curious to run an arima model or something on the data.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don’t know what mechanism caused sudden onset of increase in early 2021 or gradual reduction in slope at early 2022. Depending on what the mechanism was for this would indicate how quickly the current trend can change.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
There’s been no test for 5 years. This year is unlikely to be more serious.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 20
11%
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
25%
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
43%
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
21%
More than or equal to 50
Why do you think you're right?
Above 23 for past 3 years and in 40s last year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don’t know if the year on year trend is stable.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-15%)
Yes
Close to deadline
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Russia is getting less popular in europe
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-45%)
Yes
Why would the covid policy change this month after years of being in place. Covid cases are increasing.
Files
Israe has normalised some relationships recently.