The West seems strongly united on this point (not supplying jets), and Russia has reserved some of its harshest language for threatening countries that would supply fighter jets to Ukraine. Plus, it would take too long to train Ukrainian pilots on how to fly them, and how to maintain them. Just too many downsides and not enough upsides.
0.012717
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
1
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Probability
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0%
Yes
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Answer
0%
(-10%)
Yes
Due to the passage time, and the continued conflicts without any hint at compromise by either side or by the allied West and Putin, it will not happen.
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Answer
10%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
First, I don't think the war will end before then, even if a cease-fire is reached. This is different from when Russia took over Crimea in both scope and magnitude. So there would be no logical reason to alleviate pressure on Russia, even though the EU is under pressure from energy supplies. Second, and more importantly, I think the world has changed since Russia invaded Ukraine. Dozens of countries around the world (including the EU) are gravely concerned about setting a precedent that could lead to World War III. To appease Russia would repeat what happened during World War II. Appeasement doesn't work, and I think the world wants to demonstrate that this cannot happen again. It also sends a message to China, which is preparing to invade Taiwan.
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Why might you be wrong?
If a small number of EU countries suffer enough over the winter due to energy shortages, there will be strong political pressure to fix it, including lifting some (but not all) sanctions on Russia. Because of the way this question was worded, the EU might lift sanctions on one or more sectors to appease the population of those countries. This might be in the form of small side deals, such as a deal to exchange sanctions on certain energy sectors for Russian countermeasures on food products, for example.
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Why do you think you're right?
It's possible that Russia might mount some sort of "false flag" operation that goes wrong intended to provoke NATO involvement in the war, but I don't think it would happen before April 1. It might be more likely after a few months, if things continue to go downhill for Moscow. I don't think an errant missile launched by Russia would kill 25 or more people.
Why might you be wrong?
An errant missile launched by Russia could hit a densely populated facility (hospital, church, etc) and kill 25 or more people.