akhiljalan

Using Will's missile-adjusted base rate of 15% as a starting point. Note that this is higher than a base rate given by just looking at nuclear tests. 

Inside information: 

- "Until 2022, North Korea's stated policy position was that nuclear weapons "will never be abused or used as a means for preemptive strike", but if there is an "attempt to have recourse to military force against us" North Korea may use their "most powerful offensive strength in advance to punish them". This was not a full no first use policy.[56] This policy changed in 2022 with a law approved by the Supreme People's Assembly, which states that in the case of an attack against the top leadership or the nuclear command and control system, nuclear attacks against the enemy would be launched automatically"

(Wikipedia)

- Kim in recent years has used political conferences in late December or early January to review state affairs and reveal his most important goals in economic and foreign policy and arms development. It’s possible that those meetings are replacing the function of Kim’s New Year’s Day speeches, which he has skipped since 2020 after using them for years to issue major announcements.

During Wednesday’s meeting in the capital, Pyongyang, Kim insisted that the country this year overcame “unprecedented adversity” in both internal and external circumstances to achieve progress in national development and elevate the country’s “prestige and honor,” the Korean Central News Agency said.

https://apnews.com/article/business-seoul-foreign-policy-south-korea-north-6761b0d084163dbbbb633d66284a1bf3

I am cautious to update much based on this information, because this doesn't seem to indicate directly that there will be nuclear tests or even further missile tests. 

Still, to update towards community mean I will say ~25%.