Manifold has a low estimate for a longer period of time. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-e717f6cb823f
0.002871
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-23%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
Time is running out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
31%
Intel
99%
Samsung
99%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
Samsung and TSMC have already started
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Manifold is lower for a longer period: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-e717f6cb823f
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's hard to predict a dictator's decisions
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
As long as Putin is not forced to admit to a catastrophic failure of the invasion, he can probably hold on to power.
Files
25 fatalities may seem to be a small number compared to both countries' population but would be huge given the history of their border conflict. The only time that any fatalities occurred was in 2020 in the past 47 years as far as I can tell.