A chance of 1% per month due to various reasons.
- Rarity of coups and revolts against post-Soviet dictators in stable governments. (Russia seems quite different from Kyrgyzstan.)
- Rarity of assassination of Russian/Soviet heads of state. There is only Tsar Alexander II (the one who had freed the serfs), so far as we know, right?
- The long period he has already been in power.
- His long experience in covert politics, which very likely makes him harder to overthrow than the typical head of state.
- The lack of economic collapse and/or widespread protests that could provide justification for a coup and/or make security forces waver during a coup attempt.
- The lack of evidence for claims of terminal illness.
- Ukraine's Western backers not wanting Ukraine to escalate by targeting senior leaders.
- A truce could probably be implemented with a week's notice or less, reducing pressure on him.
First forecast here. Please tell me how to improve.
Why do you think you're right?
For the reasons explained by JJMLP in their 14th forecast (Jan 3).
Also, the US and USSR didn't do things like this to each other during the Korean, Vietnam, and Afghan proxy wars, right?
Why might you be wrong?
No one is fully in control of war. To the extent people are in control, they are not necessarily fully rational. Accidents happen.