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Considering the "path dependence theories", it is not likely that Vladmir Putin ceases to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023. First of all, even after mentioning what is path dependence, we are very close to 1 March 2023 and there is no signs that Putin will leave his power to another person, even with the war in Ukraine happening. The contrary, he seems to be more attached to win what he wants in power with the war happening in Ukraine. He has a personality that does not seem to be likely to giving up about his goals.
About path dependence, Vladimir Putin seems to follow the same steps of his predecessors in power. Althought he is not a cazar, he seems to act as one. Extremely authoritary and, specially (what concerns us here) for long years in power. That's why the chance for him to quite power 1 March 2023 is zero per cent. I would even say that the war in Ukraine is a "plus" for him to STAY, instead of quitting his chair, and proving to th