Our energy economy is not aligned for the long view under current leadership. Such change would take longer than a year.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Less than 20%
14%
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
1%
More than or equal to 24%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Innovation moves faster than we can anticipate and people can surprise you. Geopolitical concerns may force our hand.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
52%
(+17%)
Japan
43%
(-22%)
The Netherlands
35%
(0%)
South Korea
15%
(-35%)
Any other country not listed
Updating previous forecast after thinking on it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-10%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Relinquishing power is the last thing Putin would ever do, he has set himself up to be nearly untouchable by eliminating any governmental bodies that would keep him in check. An assassin would likely be killed or punished severely, even if successful. The only way he is out is by death. He does look sick, but not that sick.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He may be sicker than he looks. Or there may be an assassination plot in the works, perhaps orchestrated by oligarchs and the like.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Japan
65%
The Netherlands
35%
South Korea
50%
Any other country not listed
Why do you think you're right?
The Netherlands seem to be on the same page as the US very often. I think Japan and South Korea would like to but may need time to weigh against the increased risk of provoking their neighboring country.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I am not well-informed on the situation on each side.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
There are better solutions to any problems the EU might have than to let up on Putin by relying on Russia in any meaningful way.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
People are fallible and I can’t be sure the leaders will act on the best information.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 26, 2023 08:40AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Jan 26, 2023 to Feb 26, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
I don’t think Putin will find the risk worthwhile considering the way any nuclear weapon use is regarded by the rest of the world.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin has made other horrible calculations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Space X has been doing well and seems to really know what they’re doing.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China can move very fast and keep secrets.
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
Updating previous forecast to reflect increase in odds for Japan and Netherlands to join by March 31st.
Why might you be wrong?
I am young and not all that experienced in world politics.