isabel

Isabel J
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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? -0.000157
    Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024) 0.0
    Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? 0.009851
    Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024) 0.0
    Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024) 0.0
    Feb 2, 2024 10:00PM When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? -0.001042
    Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? -0.000291
    Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024) 0.0
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces? 0.008488
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.00067
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? -0.007591
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.017049
    Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? -0.008574
    Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.0
    Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023) 0.0
    Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023) 0.0
    Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023) 0.0
    Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023? -0.001226
    Sep 1, 2023 04:01AM Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? -0.000262
    Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023) -0.000032
     
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