Launch would already need to be announced at this point
-0.00158
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Short time left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
0%
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
0%
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
100%
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova
Short time left, <1% chance of this happening
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Less than $4.60
1%
More than or equal to $4.60 but less than $4.80
0%
More than or equal to $4.80 but less than $5.00
0%
More than or equal to $5.00 but less than $5.20
0%
More than or equal to $5.20
Very short amount of time left.
Files
Based on earlier rationales about labor, administration, etc. costs